Demand Forecast
Predict inventory needs up to 90 days in advance with automated alerts.
Available on Pro plans and above. Demand Forecast predicts your inventory needs up to 90 days in advance by analyzing upcoming subscription charges and historical patterns.
How forecasts are generated
- PricePilot aggregates upcoming charges from Recharge, grouped by product variant and date.
- Raw demand (total units expected) is adjusted using historical skip rates and subscription churn rates. The formula is:
adjusted demand = raw demand × (1 - skip rate) × (1 - churn rate). - Confidence intervals are calculated at ±15% around the adjusted demand.
- Forecasts are compared against current Shopify inventory levels to compute an inventory surplus or deficit.
Rates and historical data
- Skip rate: The percentage of charges that customers typically skip. Calculated from recent subscription metrics. Default: 5% when no data exists.
- Churn rate: The percentage of subscriptions that are cancelled per period. Default: 3% when no data exists.
- Both rates are automatically updated from your store's actual Recharge data as it accumulates over time.
Inventory alerts
When forecasted demand is projected to exceed available stock, PricePilot generates alerts at three severity levels:
- Warning: Inventory projected to run out within 14 days
- Critical: Inventory projected to run out within 7 days
- Urgent: Inventory projected to run out within 3 days
Alerts include the variant, current stock level, forecasted demand, and the projected stockout date. You can view and resolve alerts from the Demand Forecast section of PricePilot.
AI-powered adjustments (Ultra plan)
On the Ultra plan, PricePilot can apply an AI adjustment layer that analyzes seasonal patterns, trends, and anomalies in your forecast data. When enabled, the AI reviews each variant's forecast and may adjust demand predictions based on detected patterns. Each adjustment includes a plain-language explanation of why the demand was modified.
Forecasts run automatically every 6 hours.